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18 January 2008

Climate change: from despondency to a new spirit of optimism and co-operation

Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg
Distinguished guests
Ladies and gentlemen

It is a great pleasure once again to find myself in the wonderful environment that is the Kirstenbosch Botanical Garden. I am also delighted about the presence of Prime Minister Stoltenberg who offered to participate in this event on his way through the port of Cape Town to view first hand the situation in the Antarctic region. I would also like to thank the organisers of this event for inviting me to address you.

January 2008 is indeed an opportune moment to reflect on the international response to climate change. Last month we adopted the Bali Roadmap for negotiations on the future of the climate regime beyond 2012. I will return to this later. This month is also the beginning of the first commitment period of five years for emission reductions by countries that have targets under the Kyoto Protocol. As we enter this year, we also recognise that the milestone for the 100 millionth certified emission reduction credit under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was passed by late December.

Under this Kyoto mechanism, projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to sustainable development earn saleable credits, each equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide. There are currently more than 860 registered CDM projects in 49 developing countries, with another 2000 projects in the pipeline. This demonstrates that action on mitigation is taking place in developing countries at increasing scale. Of course we will need to scale up further, and particular action is needed to ensure that a much greater percentage of these projects take place in Africa.

Today the focus is on the results of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC), which emerged after many years of hard work, and a very busy year in 2007. The IPCC is tasked with assessing the state of scientific knowledge with regard to climate change, its causes, potential impacts, and the human societal responses that are relevant to this monumental environmental challenge. A body that carries out review work of such high relevance is bound to be scrutinised and criticised, and rightly so, but in the process may also find itself and its findings to be misrepresented. Therefore, it is events such as this that help to illuminate the results to a wider audience, and allow a broader cross-section of society further insights into the findings that have emerged since early 1990's, when the IPCC was established.

The work of IPCC has shown unequivocally that climate change is happening now and will get far worse with dramatic and even catastrophic and irreversible impacts unless we substantially reduce our greenhouse gas emissions and start doing it now. Their work has raised awareness of the climate issue and is crucial to international cooperation to face the climate challenge. A number of South African scientists have participated extensively in the panel's work, and our government has engaged actively in the negotiating fora that arrived at consensus on the wide-ranging findings of this body. We believe that our inputs were useful to the process, and especially to ourselves, as we gained further insights into the challenges, and its possible solutions.

The IPCC reports have been pivotal in informing the international policy developments on climate change, and especially in kick starting the new political momentum that emerged in the climate negotiations in Bali at the end of last year. The IPCC provides the basis of scientific knowledge on which we do our work. It is important that this role is continued into the future; both through full assessments as well as special reports, and those new findings are assessed every 5 to 6 years. Given the urgency indicated by science, there is no longer a plausible excuse for inaction by any country.

Our domestic process of policy making interacts closely with the latest science and the international negotiations. Clearly, it would not be economically, socially, environmentally or politically sustainable for South Africa to continue to grow along a "business as usual" path, without a carbon constraint. Therefore, in March 2006 Cabinet commissioned a process to examine the options available to mitigate our greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this Long Term Mitigation Scenario (LTMS) study is to contribute to setting the pathway for long term climate policy for the country. Ultimately this groundbreaking work which is now in its final stretch together with our work on sectoral strategies, the Greenhouse Gas Inventory (GHGI), our National Communications to the UN and our adaptation planning, will inform our deliberations towards a legislative package which will give effect to our policy at a mandatory level.

On the international front, it is important for us all to realise that the global negotiations are part of a long process that began in 1992, and that have been marked by progress in some areas and setbacks in others. In 1992, when the UN Framework Convention on climate change was negotiated, there was some scientific uncertainty about the link between climate change and human activity. In 1995, when the second IPCC assessment report gave us more scientific certainty, the international community responded and developed a new legal instrument, the Kyoto Protocol, under this framework agreement. Today, some 12 years later, we are faced with alarming and overwhelming scientific findings from the IPCC's fourth assessment report. As in 1995, we now, once again, have to take bold steps as we face up to our common challenges.

After a long period of despondency there is a new spirit of optimism and cooperation following the Bali meeting and the launching of a new round of negotiations to strengthen the climate regime after 2012. In this new round, adaptation finally has equal place alongside mitigation. And we are talking about mitigation for all including the US. In addition, developing countries have agreed to start negotiations on mitigation action that is measurable, reportable and verifiable.

In the Bali Roadmap, a firm end date of 2009, by when we should agree on the details of a more effective and inclusive climate regime, has been set for what can be expected to be two years of intense negotiations. And most importantly, the Bali Roadmap also sets the agenda for negotiations for the next two years. This agenda will evolve around four building blocks, namely: adaptation to the unavoidable impacts of climate change, mitigation (reducing or avoiding emissions), financing and technology. On mitigation, which was the most difficult area of the negotiations, the Bali Roadmap strikes a core balance between the respective contributions by developed and developing countries. South Africa, joined by many of our partners on the developing world, committed to doing much more to combat climate change and to taking ambitious mitigation action.

Deeper emission cuts (more stringent targets) for developed countries that have signed the Kyoto Protocol are also on the cards, within the emission reduction range of between 25% and 40% of 1990 emission levels by 2020. The USA, who is not currently engaged in the full multilateral process, committed to joining the next two years of negotiations with a view to taking on measurable, reportable and verifiable emission reduction commitments and actions, including quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives, that are comparable to the efforts of other developed countries.

The United States' commitment to join negotiations is an important step forward. But it remains a first step, an infant step. What we expect from them is a quantum leap. We need to build a bridge from the fragmented and inadequate status quo to a climate regime where the USA also accepts internationally agreed and binding targets. It is critical that "comparable effort" leads to US commitments to absolute reductions of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Developing countries demonstrated real leadership in Bali. It is now over to the US to demonstrate leadership and take their fair share of responsibility.

This will also be my message when we meet with the United States in 10 days time at the second US hosted major economies meeting on energy security and climate change. This meeting will follow two days after President Bush's State of the Union Address on 28 January. If the USA is really committed to addressing this issue, 28 January will be a golden opportunity for President Bush to signal that turning point for real action and commitment on climate change.

In conclusion, achieving climate stability and sustainable development in an equitable way requires individual nations to rise above short term self-interest for the benefit of the long term global public good. We must all act with a greater sense of urgency. Though we have different responsibilities for the past and we should all take common responsibility for the future. South Africa stands ready to take ambitious mitigation action. We will contribute our fair share towards our common responsibility for the future.

For any enquiries contact:
Riaan Aucamp
Cell: 083 778 9923

Issued by: Ministry of Environmental Affairs and Tourism
18 January 2008

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