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25 Jul 2006

The Minister of Education rejects the report in Beeld headlined "21,9 percent of 1994 Gr.1's wrote matric last year, says Pandor". This is a misreading of the Minister's response to parliamentary question 691.

In her response to this question, the Minister said: "The drop-out rate refers to the proportion of learners who leave school without completing a given grade in a given school year. Hence, the drop-out rate is grade specific and is not measured across a range of grades. The question presumes that a subtraction of enrolment figures between grades provides a measure of the drop-out rate between grade 1 and grade 12. This assumption is incorrect, as it does not take into account three important factors:

* learners repeating grades
* learners who leave school to attend FET (further education and training) colleges or ABET (adult basic education and training) institutions
* learners who delay secondary level schooling for economic reasons.

Moreover, when attempting to do a cohort comparison it needs to be borne in mind that in the early 1990s there was a high under-age enrolment rate and repetition rate in grade one."

Beeld goes on to say: "In response to a Parliamentary question from the Democratic Alliance, the Minister of Education, Ms Naledi Pandor, admitted that there was an extremely high dropout figure amongst primary and high school learners."

Keen journalists are encouraged to read her answer to question 691 to test the accuracy of this statement. The full answer to the question is attached here.
According to Luis Crouch, international education expert, when repetition is taken into account, 60 percent of each cohort reaches matric.

Crouch writes: "Compared to other middle-income countries, it would be entirely unreasonable to classify South Africa's dropout problem as ‘huge,’ though obviously there are some dropouts. South Africa does a little better than other middle income countries, and certainly better than its SADC neighbours.

For written reply
Question 691
 
Date of publication in internal question paper: 19-06-2006
(internal paper no. 18-2006)
 
Mr G G Boinamo to ask the Minister of Education:
 
(1) What was the total number of learners who (a) commenced grade one in (i) 1991, (ii) 1992, (iii) 1993 and (iv) 1994 and (b) completed matric in (i) 2002, (ii) 2003, (iii) 2004 and (iv) 2005
(2) What reasons has she identified for the high drop-out rate of learners from schools
(3) Whether she has taken any steps to tackle this problem; if not why not; if so, (a) what steps and (b) with what results?
 
Reply:
 
(1) The total number of learners who (a) commenced grade one in (i) 1991 was 1 508 269, (ii) 1992 was 1 551 097, (iii) in 1993 was 1 554 664, and (iv) in 1994 was 1 588 591 and (b) completed matric in (i) 2002 was 305 774, (ii) 2003 was 322 492, (iii) in 2004 was 330 717 (iv) and 2005 was 347 184.1[1]
 
(2) The drop-out rate refers to the proportion of learners who leave school without completing a given grade in a given school year. Hence, the drop-out rate is grade specific and is not measured across a range of grades. The question presumes that a subtraction of enrolment figures between grades provides a measure of the drop-out rate between grade 1 and grade 12. This assumption is incorrect, as it does not take into account three important factors: (a) learners repeating grades; (b) learners who leave school to attend Further Education and Training (FET) colleges or Adult Basic Education and Training (ABET) institutions and (c) learners who delay secondary level schooling for economic reasons. Moreover, when attempting to do a cohort comparison it needs to be borne in mind that in the early 1990s there was a high under-age enrolment rate and repetition rate in grade one.
 
The idea that grade progression can be used to calculate the drop-out rate was expressed by Crain Soudien in a 10-year review of schooling conducted by the Centre for Education Policy Development for the South African Democratic Teachers Union. The findings were reported by David MacFarlane in the Mail and Guardian in a piece called “The Disappearing Children” (25 November 2005). The Director-General responded to the MacFarlane article with a piece entitled “Who is out of school” (20 January 2006), and commissioned research into the phenomenon of dropouts. The result of the commissioned research is a comprehensive analysis by Dr Luis Crouch, “Disappearing schoolchildren or data misunderstandings - Dropout phenomena in South Africa” (December 2005). It deals fully with the data on enrolment and makes relevant international comparisons.
 
I attach the two Mail and Guardian articles here (the original Mail and Guardian article by the Director-General rather than the published article that contains unfortunate sub-editing errors), and an abstract of the Crouch article. I also attach the Crouch article as a file, so that Members can get a better idea of how to analyse the enrolment numbers.
 
However, I am concerned about the number of our learners who do not complete matric through the school process. I say the school process deliberately because many may choose for economic and other reasons to delay their education. But the lion’s share of the drop off in enrolment takes place in the post-compulsory school phase. It should be remembered that I do not have the power to compel post-compulsory age learners to continue full time in schooling.
 
It is worth noting, though, that according to the General Household Survey (2005) 97,9% of children of compulsory school-going age (7 to 15 year olds) attended some form of educational institution in 2005.
 
(3) My predecessors and I have taken a number of steps to deal with the issue of learners progressing through the system.
 
First, when the data began to show that we had a problem of over-enrolment in grade one in the late 1990s, the admission requirement to schools was amended to prescribe an entry age. We will be able to measure the effects of this when the cohort reaches grade 12 in future years. However grade one enrolments have stabilized to about 1,2 million over the last few years as compared to 1,6 million in the late 1990s.
 
Second, the promotion policy was also amended to allow repetition only once in each phase. This is expected to increase the flow of learners through the system. In addition, we are considering a regime of monitoring the repetition rate in grade 11 so that schools do not artificially select learners into grade 12. This re-emphasizes our position that schools need to encourage learners to complete their schooling.
 
Third, one of the aims of no-fee schools is to improve learner enrolment.
 
However, the most sustainable actions are measures to improve the quality of learning and teaching so that the numbers of learners continuing with post-compulsory schooling increases. Clearly these are large systemic issues and the results can only be measured over the long term. However, as I indicated, all indicators are showing an increase in participation, an increase in the number of matriculants passing, and relatively high participation rates in the post compulsory phase.

1[1] No data for learners in independent schools were available for the Transkei-Bophuthatswana-Venda-Ciskei (TBVC) States. 1991: "Education in the RSA 1991 (NATED 02-215, 94/04)"; 1992-1993: Data News (EduSource); 1994: "CS Education According to Province for 1994 (233, 95/08)"; 2002-2005: "Senior Certificate Examination" (Department of Education).

Issued by:
Lunga Ngqengelele
Tel: (012) 312 5538
Cell: 082 566 0446
E-mail: ngqengelele.l@doe.gov.za

Issued by: Department of Education
25 July 2006